opinion polls after first round

According to the Capital research opinion poll (11-12 April, 800 respondents), the left will win the elections anyway. Had the second round been immediately after the 9 April first round, MSZP and SZDSZ joined candidates would have gained 55 percent, the Fidesz 44 and MDF 5 percent of the vote. There would be only two candidates Fidesz would gain only a percentage of the vote more.
Pretty interesting, though of course these mirror the support for the parties nationwide, rather than the situation in the single-member constituencies, where there is a re-election. Unlike one might think, the first round does not qualify the candidates for the second round, but it's up to the parties to nominate the candidates. This would mean that even if the MSZP candidate gained the most votes in a constituency, if the party leadership wants to have the third running SZDSZ candidate to run for the second round they can do it, as they did at least in one occasion. On the basis of the first round it seems that in the yet undecided constituencies MSZP and SZDSZ are stronger than Fidesz.
I'll translate further the results of the Capital poll, from the index.hu, that are interesting for the previous discussion. As many as 78 percent of the respondents thought that MDF got to the parliament because of the distinct politics they have been running vis à vis Fidesz, 65 percent argue that this is the result of Fidesz policy. The majority further think that it serves MDF's long term interests to keep distance to both of the big parties. Curiously, 48 percent think that Ibolya Dávid puts the country's interests before her own, and 40 percent think that her own interests are more important. MDF will become a reliable conservative political force in the near future is the view of 55 percent of the respondents.
So much for my own election analysis. What all this shows is the fatigue towards Fidesz and Orbán that has been felt by so many in this country. On the other hand, still over forty percent of the country stands behind Orbán and Fidesz – there's many many disappointed people around.
Let's see next week what the general mood will be.

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